11,327 - correction time
October 31, 2006
As expected yesterday,the KSE-100 index experienced a correction today and closed 200 points down at 11,327. The market had no juice to go up beyond its previous close and further corrections seem likely as its still overbought and some of the corporate results are fucking terrible.
Oil related stocks are getting a bashing as the price of oil was much higher in the last quarter than it is now. OGDC could go down to 145, taking the index down with it and PSO has been badly fucked by its result (EPS Rs.3) and down Rs.24 (7.4%) since yesterday morning. The next index resistance level down is 11,200 and upside will continue on a close above 11,600.
News : The Board of Directors of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) has approved the VAR (value at risk) - the new risk management system that is going to be implemented from November 6…. Business Recorder
The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) has set December 31, 2006, for demutualization of the exchange as part of reform process and to run it on international professional lines…. The News
Dividends: Fauji Fertilizer : 18.5% Cash. EPS : Rs.6.14
MCB : 20% Cash. EPS : Rs.16.89
Pakistan Petroleum Ltd: EPS : Rs.5.54
Soneri Bank : EPS : Rs.3.35
Nishat Mills : EPS : Rs.2.93
Adamjee Insurance : EPS : Rs.14.17
Lower Cap : Pakistan Refinery
Market Low : 11,327.71 High : 11,528.27
Market Close : 11,327.71 –200.56 points down
The Karachi Stock market opened on a high note after a closure of 11 days due to Eid. It made a high of 11,635 and then dipped down to 11,434. Today is the first time since the middle of June that short selling has been allowed, a reality check for this market. While the market looks firm and there is a lot of noise about it testing its previous 12,300 + high once again, don’t discount a possiblity of a correction down to 11k. RSI levels are very high and the market is overbought, especially OGDC and NBP. Cements have taken a good bashing.The next upward resistance levels are 11,630 and 11,700.
The Karachi Stock Exchange is closed today and will open on October 30th.
As mentioned yesterday the Karachi stock market broke 11,500 and made a high of 11,596, closing at 11,565. Since the 17th Oct. it has risen by 660 points, a 6% increase.There seems to be a lot of foreign buying with money being pumped into OGDC and NBP. OGDC closed at its upper limit at Rs.156 and has risen nearly Rs.20 this week. The next resistance is 11,650.
The KSE-100 index surged further upwards to make a high of 11,438 and closed at 11,399. PPL’s upper cap , OGDC’s near upper cap and POL up Rs.15 lead the way to another 232 points up. RSI levels are the highest since May and some correction is expected 2moro as there has been considerable upside recently.Also with the long Eid holidays, people might well shed their positions 2moro till next Thursday. Though as we all know this is a crazy fucking market and it could well test and break 11,500 2moro.
Finally the Karachi Stock market has broken through its range of 10,800 -11,000 with a 258 plus move taking the index to close above 11,000. With OGDC breaking out above its 200 DMA and closing Rs.6.8 up at Upper Cap, PPL, POL and NBP closing from Rs.7.8 - 9.7 rupees up, the market got the boost it needed to close well above 11k. The next resistance is 11,400.
A day of low volumes on the Karachi Stock Exchange with only 63.9 million shares traded. With a high of 10,965 and a low of 10,902, the market is still holding on to its range of 10,800 - 11,000. If it can’t break 11k it will eventually correct rapidly or slide down to below 10,800.
The Karachi Stock market made a high of 10,969 and closed up at 10,924. It seems to be holding on at current levels and the next resistance is 10,950 followed by 11,000.
Having dipped down to 10,832 the market went back up and closed at 10,880 , a level it seems to be holding on at. Whether a bigger correction is due remains to be seen , all fingers point to an increase in the price of OGDC to take the market above 11k.
The Karachi Stock Market made a high of 11,059 and had its first negative close since October 3rd, to close down at 10,886. It has closed at the same level as the lows in the last two sessions and should correct further down before it re-tests a close above 11k.
The market is still holding on to its current range of 10,888 - 11,015 . A lot depends of OGDC to take it up and above 11k and a correction should come in soon if the 11k index is not broken this week. OGDC’s close below its 200 DMA won’t help either. As the market gets more overbought with its RSI rising higher, there will be sharp volatility upwards or more likely downwards.
The Karachi Stock market made a high of 11,015 and closed at 10,942. While corrections are expected as the market’s indicators are showing that its overbought, the next level up is a close above 11k with resitance at 11,100. OGDC has closed up at 137.20, nearly above its 200 DMA and could well give the added index boost the market needs to cross and close above 11k. Banks are undergoing a correction of their rapid highs.
The last time the Karachi Stock market was at the 10,900 levels was August 8th when it made an intra-day high of 10,908 and then slid downwards to 10,798, 10,500 and then further down. Today the market crossed 10,900 making a high of 10,947 and closed at 10,927. The next resistance is 10,950, 11000, and 11,180. As the index weightage in this market is totally imbalanced with OGDC, a lot depends on OGDC’s ability to break and close above 137.5 , its 200 DMA. There should be some correction coming soon as the market has gone up by 335 points in the last 3 sessions and its RSI (14) is over 70.
The upward movement continued at the Karachi Stock Exchange with the market closing up at 10,855, having made a high of 10,877. The next resistance is 10,900 and then through the 11k index to 11,150. A correction is due soon as the market is looking a bit overbought. OGDC has to close above its 200 DMA at Rs.137 for further upside.
The KSE -100 index opened down correcting to 10,531 and then towards the end made a high and close of 10,774. (The last time the market closed at this level was August 4th) Managing to successfully cross the 10,650 resistance level and closing well above its 200 DMA, the market should head upwards to 10,900 with corrections along the way. In the last half hour of the session OGDC went up Rs.6 to close at Rs.134.5 , taking the index right up with it. OGDC has finally closed over its 50 DMA and could head to test its 200 DMA at around Rs.137.
The market went upto 10,698 and then corrected down to 10,559, finally closing at 10,592. A close over 10,650 would see more upside on the horizon and 10,400 is the current downside. It seems that another test of 10,650 is possible yet with the RSI (14) at 65 market is heading towards being slightly overbought and could correct again. 
The mini-bull run continues on the Karachi Stock market with a high of 10,653 and closing at 10,616. Once again it is heading to breakout of its 10,500 - 10,655 range and could continue to 10,900. Some correction is due soon . Banks continue to be the hot trend despite the news about the NSS below.
