10,853
July 30, 2008
As expected, the KSE-100 index shot up today closing 404 points up at 10,853. Despite the 400 point rise, volumes were relatively low with 87.6 million shares traded. The 1% interest rate hike was within market expectations and no further hikes in the CRR & SLR were seen as positive. Now that the uncertainty of the rate hike is over, the market should move upwards in lieu of the current result season. The next upward resistance is 11,100. Oil jumped up by $5 to127 today due to a decline in US gasoline inventories, any fucking excuse for its pathetic uncontrolled speculation.
Dividends : Arif Habib Ltd : 25% Cash + 25% Bonus. EPS : 19.14 Fauji Fertilizer : 30% Cash : EPS : 6.66
Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) has posted a net profit of Rs3.3 billion for the first half of calendar year 2008. This is 38 per cent higher than Rs2.4 billion the Company earned in the corresponding period last year…The Earning per Share (EPS) for the said period enhanced to Rs. 6.7 as compared to Rs. 4.8 in same period in 2007. Earnings of the company increased on the back of higher urea prices under the review period as price increased to Rs.600 per bag by Jun 2008, as well as higher volumetric urea sales, standing at 1.2 million tons as against one million tons in first half of 2007… net sales of the company increased by 39 per cent to stand at Rs14 billion compared to Rs10 billion in the corresponding period last year… The News
News : The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet on Wednesday approved the new oil pricing mechanism, reducing deemed duty for oil refineries and import duty on crude oil import to 7.5 percent each and fixing margins of OMCs and dealers… Federal Finance Minster Naveed Qamar said the measures taken would not benefit consumers. These measures would help the government reduce the subsidy on diesel by Rs 8.15 per litre. The minister said the government could not pass on the benefits of the reduction in OMCs’ and dealers’ margins to consumers. He said the government was still giving Rs 35 per litre subsidy on diesel that amounted to Rs 1 billion a day. The minister also said the ECC had fixed the margins of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and dealers’ commission according to crude oil price of $100 per barrel. The ECC has also decided to reduce the deemed duty (a subsidy) for oil refineries from 10% to 7.5%. Import duty on crude oil has also been reduced from 10% to 7.5%… Daily Times
The government is considering a crackdown on cement manufacturers against raising cement prices to over Rs 400 per 50 kg bag, without any justification,…The issue was discussed in the meeting of the Economic Co-ordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet on Wednesday wherein it was confirmed that cement manufacturers have raised the price of 50 kg cement bag to Rs 400 at a time when the construction season is at peak in the country.Sources said that Finance Ministry has been asked to investigate the reasons for the sudden increase in cement prices when there was no substantial change in input costs. Analysts have calculated that the cost one 50 kg cement bag is in the range of Rs 230-240, which means that the manufacturers are overcharging the consumers by approximately Rs 160 per bag….the government was considering withdrawing recent increase of 20 percent in federal excise duty (FED) on cement because of its negative impact on construction industry throughout the country. The government had raised FED by Rs 150 per ton to Rs 900 from Rs 750 in the federal budget besides enhancing one percent general sales tax (GST)… Aaj News
Market Low : 10,448.19 High : 10,855.79
Market Close : 10,853.02 – 404.82 points up
The Karachi Stock market dipped down to 10,255 and recovered to close down at 10,448. The monetary policy has been announced (see article below ) which removes any future uncertainty from the market. The market should go up once the interest rate hike has been absorbed, however a close below 10,400 will be negative for the market and it would head to 10k and lower.
The KSE-100 index got hammered today on investors’ fears of another interest rate hike due to be announced 2moro. The market fell 453 points to close down at 10,578. It could fall further depending on the amount of the interest rate hike, the bigger the hike, the greater the fall. Be prepared with large jars of Vaseline.
The KSE-100 index made a high of 11,173 , then dipped down to 10,979 and close up at 11,156. Total volume traded today was 111.9 million shares, still on the low side. Arif Habib Securities was the flavour of the day with 12.6 million shares traded. The market has closed above its first resistance of 11,100 and the next target is 11,400. The market is up by nearly 1000 points since Friday and after 4 days of green, there could be some weekend selling 2moro.
Another positive day at the Karachi Stock Exchange with the market making a high of 11,141 and closing up at 11,018. The market seems to have met resistance at 11,100 and needs to close above it for its next move to 11,400-700. Oil has dropped further down to $125 and hopefully will continue to fall more ,to get back to a realistic price.
The Karachi Stock market opened up and stayed positive all day, closing at 10,784. The market rose in anticipation of the Finance Minister’s visit this afternoon . He announced that the EMOF would be Rs.20 billion and would be managed by NIT. Also mentioned that the Govt. would work with the SBP to have a balanced monetary policy and promised that its net borrowing from the SBP would be kept at zero. Along with the expected Saudi oil payment facility, there seems to be enough positive news to stabilize the market at current levels. The next upward resistance is 11,100.
After another dip down to 10,057, the KSE-100 index finally closed up with a reasonable gain of 140 points at 10,374. The Government has finally woken up to realize that the market has gone down nearly 35% in the last 3 months. This has resulted in a visit from the SBP governor at the KSE today and the Finance Minister will be visiting 2moro. A little too late one could say, but better late than never. A close above 10,500 would be supportive for the market.
As expected the Karachi Stock market got badly fucked, as the lower limit was opened to 5% today and the market fell by 518 points. Volumes were on the low side with 49.3 million shares traded, not much different from July 9th when the lower cap was 1% and 50 million shares were traded. Certain blue chips have hit their 2 year lows yet there doesn’t seem to be much buying interest. If there is no support/buying at 5% down 2moro there will be a lot of bleeding investors.
Friday saw the week ending with the KSE-100 index closing down yet again, at 11,695. After Friday’s meeting of the SECP & the stock exchanges, it has been decided that the locks will revert to their normal 5% up or down as of July 14th. Short selling will be allowed in the August futures contract (see the article below) Given the pattern of trading in the last 2 weeks, expect a lot of lower caps 2moro. Stock up on Vaseline and Pampers !
After yesterday’s volume of 50 million, the market resumed its previous low volume, trading only 10.5 million shares. The market remained down the whole day and in the last 2-3 minutes jumped up by 60 odd points on heavy buying in HBL. The outlook for 2moro looks the same till there is some clarification on the lock revision after the 15th. Oil rose by $5 today.
The KSE-100 index actually went into the green zone a couple of times today, the first time in many days. The rapid (but long overdue ) support measures by the SBP on halting the rupee’s slide and yesterday’s news of a Rs. 50 billion market fund being talked about , seemd to be positive catalysts to a certain extent. Volume rose to nearly 50 million shares traded today and several stocks lifted from their lower caps to close plus. Perhaps the market will make a positive close 2moro .
More of the same today as the Karachi Stock market closed down yet again , despite a marginal increase in volumes to 18.9 million shares traded. Oil got a good hammering today and was down by $5. The rupee got fucked further and closed at 72.80
The KSE -100 index slid further downwards today with relatively higher volumes of 13.4 million shares traded. Bank Alfalah’s volume of 4.476 million shares traded today was higher than the total volume of shares traded on Friday. The horizon looks bleaker as the rupee had an enormous slide today(2.5%) closing at 71.80 to the dollar, due to panic buying. Typical on a day where the dollar actually rose against most other currencies ! The rupee has depreciated by nearly 12% since April. Its seems that the SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) is not really supporting the rupee and removing several items from the 35% LC margin list has not helped either. All the crap about $3.5 billion dollars coming in by June 30th has done fuck all to stem the tide, as not all of it did.
More low volume trading saw the KSE-100 index post its 5th consecutive negative close today. Only 9 million shares were traded. The ruppee hit a new low today and nearly crossed Rs.70 to the dollar. Its seems likely that there will be another negative close 2moro being the end of the week and no positive news on the horizon for the moment.
Another day of piteous low volumes with the KSE-100 index trading only 11.9 million shares. The market has closed down for the fourth consecutive session and has lost 326 points since Thursday. The only solace here is that prior to the new measures with a 1% downside , the current four session loss would have been incurred in one. The erosion has been slowed down and bearing in mind that as the other world and regional markets are getting fucked badly at the moment, the oil price rearing its ugly head at $144 today and the dollar sliding daily, 1% down a day is not so bad ! If this carries on 12k will break by the end of the week. A Govt. that cannot calculate properly (CNG price issue), let alone decide on anything, doesn’t help matters either !
The Karachi Stock market displayed more of the same today with most stocks hitting their lower caps. There was some activity in OGDC which closed up marginally and PSO which closed at 428.79, up Rs.11.55. Volumes increased compared to yesterday with 40.8 million shares traded. Whether the rest of the market opens up from its lower limits 2moro remains to be seen, but there should be some recovery soon.








