10,525
August 20, 2008
The KSE-100 index experienced more than a correction as the recent 1000 point bubble was popped on the news that the Gov. is indecisive on the judiciary restoration once again. The market fell down to a low of 10,483 and close at 10,525. Friday is now the "new" deadline for more news on the matter.
Dividends : OGDC : 35% Cash EPS : 11.54
Allied Bank : 15% Cash : EPS : 3.88
Upper Caps : AICL / JSCL / PAKRI
Market Low : 10,483.37 High : 10,919.06
Market Close : 10,525.98 –393.07 points down
The market opened up and made a high of 11,061 and closed lower at 10,919 after some profit taking set in. Volumes were relatively higher with 147.1 million shares traded. The KSE-100 index has now risen over a 1000 points in the last 3 days and could well correct 2moro.
The KSE-100 index shot up to 10,719 on the news that President Pervez Musharraf finally resigned in the closing minutes of the market. The erection in the graph in the last 20 mins shows an increase of some 200 points. P.Mush’s resignation has removed the uncertainty factor for the market, which could well continue going up as many results are due this week and the next. Whatever P.Mush’s mistakes may have been, he is to be given credit for boosting the country’s economy, foreign reserves and the KSE-100 index. Perhaps his greatest service was to rid us of the stupidest fucking politician in the history of Pakistan, in 1999. Unfortunately not forever ! There is now no excuse for the current feeble govt. to not focus on improving the country’s economy and they should resolve the new president and judges restoration as soon as possible for more stability.
Friday’s close saw the KSE-100 index ignoring the sliding rupee and zooming up to close at its high of 10,258. The perception that there will soon be some clarity amidst all the current political uncertainty, led the market upwards. That immediate clarity will only come from the resignation of P.Mush which at the moment is unclear and we will see what happens in the next 2 days. One can hardly blame him to resist resigning when having a finger & a charge sheet pointed at him by two of the most corrupt politicians in the history of the country, that have robbed us blind. However a long and dragged out impeachment will currently dissolve the country’s economics even further. Speaking of the country’s poor economic state, has the Foreign Minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi paid back the $120,000 the EAC has accused him of 
The Karachi Stock market dipped down to its support level of 9,700 and then recovered to close at 9,902. The rupee has fallen even more today and that is not helping the market, nor the economy. In fact nothing is helping the market or economy thanks to our fucked up government who has no clue about anything at all, other than seeking personal vendettas. Its clearly obvious that they give don’t give a fuck about the appalling economic situation and seem to think that by removing Musharraf and installing some judges , everything will be ok. The man on the street who eagerly rushed to vote for the current party in power, for " democracy ", is getting badly fucked by inflation and soaring food prices. With a billionaire thief, a total fucking idiot from the Punjab (also a billionaire thief) & PM Manuel whose English is as hopeless as his political ability, steering us through the current quagmire of shit, what hope do we have for the future ? (Probably another few months of indecison as to who will be the next President !) It seems we never learn. 
The KSE-100 index opened up and made a high of 10,250, it then dipped down to a low of 9,848 and recovered to close down at 9,963. Profit taking, a bomb blast and an even weaker rupee saw the market close lower. Greazy Z has backtracked on his remark in the recent Sunday Times article re : Mush siphoning off US aid, claiming he was quoted out of context ! A close below 9,900 will lead to 9,700-500. 2moro’s close is anyone’s guess !
The KSE-100 index continued upwards to make a high of 10,240 and closed up at 10,171. The market got the boost from the fact that Moody’s didn’t downgrade their rating on Pakistan. The next upward resistance is 10,500
Friday saw the KSE-100 index dip down to 9,583 and then recover to close up at 9,909. Heavy support and buying from the EMOF took the market up along with the news that some of the bigger companies have expressed an interest in buying back their shares given the current incredibly low & attractive prices. Next week throws us into the impeachment saga which could see turbulence for the market especially if it turns out to be long and protracted.
The Karachi Stock market opened and dipped down to 9,469, a new intra-day low for 2008. It then recovered making a high of 9,816 and closed marginally up at 9,707, just above its support level. At the moment, there is no point in further bellyaching about what the current hopeless govt.’s latest desperate move of trying to impeach P.Mush will do to the country/economy/dwindling foreign exchange reserves etc etc. The next few days will unravel the bumpy road ahead for the market. Given the fact that this (attempted impeachment) will not be a quick procedure, it will only lead to more uncertainty in this crapshoot of a market that the KSE-100 index has become. 8,700 or lower is a reality one could be facing soon.
The KSE-100 index slid further downwards today on selling based on the "new" political agenda of the pathetic coalition govt.’s announcement to impeach P.Mush. The market has now fallen nearly 6,000 points since its all time high of 15,676 on April 18th, about 38%. At a time when the rupee is hitting newer lows and the economy is fucked (to put it mildly), the government should focus on strengthening its economy more than its failed politics and its pathetic inability to decide on anything in the last 5 months. With Greasy Z & Non Sequitur spending most of their time in Dubai and London, & the wet PM Manuel (think Fawlty Towers) at the helm of our non-government, its hardly suprising that there has been massive local & foreign selling in the market as they can’t be taken seriously. There is currently no need for impeachment which will rock an already unstable boat even further, there are far greater problems being faced in the country. If the Govt is so worried that they will be dissolved & are therefore clutching at the impeachment straw, they should do a better fucking job of being a Govt. The next stop on the slippery slope is yesterday’s low of 9,556 followed by support at 9,360. 
The Karachi Stock market’s opening was delayed this morning as a meeting was being held to discuss whether the index would be frozen at 9500 and other emergency market issues. As expected the SECP refused to freeze the market at 9,500 and the market dipped down to 9,556 and recovered rapidly towards the close to close up at 10,042. The market was boosted by the news re: wellhead gas prices increasing by 35% in the Sui field. This boosted the energy sector and therefore the market. The meeting between Zardari and Sharif amounted to fuck all as usual, and there will be another one 2moro. The next upward resistance is 10,250.
The KSE-100 index rose to make a high of 10,282 and then got raped again down to a low of 9,739 and closed down at 9,853. The market swung a total of 543 points from its high to its low and has closed at its lowest close since Dec.22nd 2006. Its seems that the Rs.5 billion worth of stock bought on Saturday did fuck all to stem the index’s continuous fall and the market has fallen a 1000 points in the last three trading sessions. The credit rating by S&P and Moodys due this week is said to having caused further panic selling today. It looks like the shorters have stepped in and could bash the index further down to 8700. The next downside support is 9700 followed by 9350. Oil fell below $120 for the first time in 3 months today.
Once again the KSE-100 index got gangbanged on Friday and closed down at 10,171 ( the lowest close since Jan.4th 2007 ) . While the market seemed to be on the right track after the interest rate announcement on the 29th , Thursday and Friday saw a slide of 680 odd points to bring us back to 10,171. While foreign selling and OMC margins were blamed for the decline , no-one has mentioned that big brokers have been bashing the market, relentlessly selling certain stocks and hammering some of the smaller brokers out of shape. Even a " large " broker has been slammed in this ride a few weeks ago. 
As expected, the KSE-100 index shot up today closing 404 points up at 10,853. Despite the 400 point rise, volumes were relatively low with 87.6 million shares traded. The 1% interest rate hike was within market expectations and no further hikes in the CRR & SLR were seen as positive. Now that the uncertainty of the rate hike is over, the market should move upwards in lieu of the current result season. The next upward resistance is 11,100. Oil jumped up by $5 to127 today due to a decline in US gasoline inventories, any fucking excuse for its pathetic uncontrolled speculation. 
The Karachi Stock market dipped down to 10,255 and recovered to close down at 10,448. The monetary policy has been announced (see article below ) which removes any future uncertainty from the market. The market should go up once the interest rate hike has been absorbed, however a close below 10,400 will be negative for the market and it would head to 10k and lower.
The KSE-100 index got hammered today on investors’ fears of another interest rate hike due to be announced 2moro. The market fell 453 points to close down at 10,578. It could fall further depending on the amount of the interest rate hike, the bigger the hike, the greater the fall. Be prepared with large jars of Vaseline. 
The KSE-100 index made a high of 11,173 , then dipped down to 10,979 and close up at 11,156. Total volume traded today was 111.9 million shares, still on the low side. Arif Habib Securities was the flavour of the day with 12.6 million shares traded. The market has closed above its first resistance of 11,100 and the next target is 11,400. The market is up by nearly 1000 points since Friday and after 4 days of green, there could be some weekend selling 2moro.
Another positive day at the Karachi Stock Exchange with the market making a high of 11,141 and closing up at 11,018. The market seems to have met resistance at 11,100 and needs to close above it for its next move to 11,400-700. Oil has dropped further down to $125 and hopefully will continue to fall more ,to get back to a realistic price.
The Karachi Stock market opened up and stayed positive all day, closing at 10,784. The market rose in anticipation of the Finance Minister’s visit this afternoon . He announced that the EMOF would be Rs.20 billion and would be managed by NIT. Also mentioned that the Govt. would work with the SBP to have a balanced monetary policy and promised that its net borrowing from the SBP would be kept at zero. Along with the expected Saudi oil payment facility, there seems to be enough positive news to stabilize the market at current levels. The next upward resistance is 11,100.
After another dip down to 10,057, the KSE-100 index finally closed up with a reasonable gain of 140 points at 10,374. The Government has finally woken up to realize that the market has gone down nearly 35% in the last 3 months. This has resulted in a visit from the SBP governor at the KSE today and the Finance Minister will be visiting 2moro. A little too late one could say, but better late than never. A close above 10,500 would be supportive for the market.
As expected the Karachi Stock market got badly fucked, as the lower limit was opened to 5% today and the market fell by 518 points. Volumes were on the low side with 49.3 million shares traded, not much different from July 9th when the lower cap was 1% and 50 million shares were traded. Certain blue chips have hit their 2 year lows yet there doesn’t seem to be much buying interest. If there is no support/buying at 5% down 2moro there will be a lot of bleeding investors. 
Friday saw the week ending with the KSE-100 index closing down yet again, at 11,695. After Friday’s meeting of the SECP & the stock exchanges, it has been decided that the locks will revert to their normal 5% up or down as of July 14th. Short selling will be allowed in the August futures contract (see the article below) Given the pattern of trading in the last 2 weeks, expect a lot of lower caps 2moro. Stock up on Vaseline and Pampers !
After yesterday’s volume of 50 million, the market resumed its previous low volume, trading only 10.5 million shares. The market remained down the whole day and in the last 2-3 minutes jumped up by 60 odd points on heavy buying in HBL. The outlook for 2moro looks the same till there is some clarification on the lock revision after the 15th. Oil rose by $5 today.
The KSE-100 index actually went into the green zone a couple of times today, the first time in many days. The rapid (but long overdue ) support measures by the SBP on halting the rupee’s slide and yesterday’s news of a Rs. 50 billion market fund being talked about , seemd to be positive catalysts to a certain extent. Volume rose to nearly 50 million shares traded today and several stocks lifted from their lower caps to close plus. Perhaps the market will make a positive close 2moro .
