11,156
July 24, 2008
The KSE-100 index made a high of 11,173 , then dipped down to 10,979 and close up at 11,156. Total volume traded today was 111.9 million shares, still on the low side. Arif Habib Securities was the flavour of the day with 12.6 million shares traded. The market has closed above its first resistance of 11,100 and the next target is 11,400. The market is up by nearly 1000 points since Friday and after 4 days of green, there could be some weekend selling 2moro.
News : The authorities have decided at a meeting held on Thursday that Equity Market Opportunity Fund (EMOF) would be an Open-End Fund. The EMOF launched from Friday (today) would be injected in stock markets under NIT management when market is under pressure…The initial size of fund was declared at Rs20 billion, but owing to its attractiveness of being an open-end fund, the size might inflate to any level. The general public would also be able to invest in this fund and the National Investment Trust (NIT) would be announcing its daily NAV value and dividends,…NIT would form a separate board to manage the fund. The board would be meeting at least after every six months or in case of emergency too. Initially, EOBI has confirmed to pool Rs3 billion; State Life Rs2 billion and Rs2 billion by National Bank, besides other financial institutions and banks would share rest of funds, sources said. This fund would be invested in KSE 100-share Index instead of KSE 30-share Index as was informed earlier. The fund would not be invested in more than 50 companies… The News
Malaysia’s Maybank is set to buy another 5 percent of Pakistan’s MCB Bank as early as next month, in a deal estimated at $218 million,…Malayan Banking Bhd, Malaysia’s leading lender, bought a 15 percent stake in MCB Bank, Pakistan’s top lender, for $680 million in May. That deal included a clause whereby Maybank was obliged to buy up to another 5 percent of MCB Bank shares within one year of the first transaction. The price for this stake was then agreed at Rs 490 per share, plus holding cost, with the total price not exceeding Rs 510 per share. “The deal is very much on, the talks have started, and if all goes well, it should materialise sometime in August,” said a source close to the transaction.
A spokesman at Maybank declined comment. A spokesman at MCB Bank said any stake purchase by Maybank would be in line with the previous agreement, but he did not give a time frame for the new purchase…. Daily Times
Adamjee Insurance is likely to announce profit after tax of Rs 2.7 billion (EPS Rs 26) for the first half of the current year compared to Rs 1.18 billion (EPS Rs 11.6) in the corresponding period of last year, a growth of 125 percent, says a research report…“Exceptional growth in 2Q2008 profitability would mainly be attributable to a one-time capital gain of Rs 2.7 billion on account of MCB sell-off deal,”…. Daily Times
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has recently raised the cement price by 15 percent due to its rising demand, mainly benefiting Pakistani cement industry, sources said on Thursday. Pakistan is the major cement exporter to the UAE, as it fulfils around 70 percent of the total demand of the product in the Emirates.After the rising cement prices in the face of huge demand in UAE, analysts see Pakistan as a primary beneficiary to flood the Arab markets with its product. It is likely to receive huge cement export orders shortly, they said…Source : Aaj News
Upper Caps : BOP / AICL / NBP / UBL / MCB / DGKC / NML / ATRL
Market Low : 10,979.07 High : 11,173.77
Market Close : 11,156.68 – 138.18 points up
Another positive day at the Karachi Stock Exchange with the market making a high of 11,141 and closing up at 11,018. The market seems to have met resistance at 11,100 and needs to close above it for its next move to 11,400-700. Oil has dropped further down to $125 and hopefully will continue to fall more ,to get back to a realistic price.
The Karachi Stock market opened up and stayed positive all day, closing at 10,784. The market rose in anticipation of the Finance Minister’s visit this afternoon . He announced that the EMOF would be Rs.20 billion and would be managed by NIT. Also mentioned that the Govt. would work with the SBP to have a balanced monetary policy and promised that its net borrowing from the SBP would be kept at zero. Along with the expected Saudi oil payment facility, there seems to be enough positive news to stabilize the market at current levels. The next upward resistance is 11,100.
After another dip down to 10,057, the KSE-100 index finally closed up with a reasonable gain of 140 points at 10,374. The Government has finally woken up to realize that the market has gone down nearly 35% in the last 3 months. This has resulted in a visit from the SBP governor at the KSE today and the Finance Minister will be visiting 2moro. A little too late one could say, but better late than never. A close above 10,500 would be supportive for the market.
As expected the Karachi Stock market got badly fucked, as the lower limit was opened to 5% today and the market fell by 518 points. Volumes were on the low side with 49.3 million shares traded, not much different from July 9th when the lower cap was 1% and 50 million shares were traded. Certain blue chips have hit their 2 year lows yet there doesn’t seem to be much buying interest. If there is no support/buying at 5% down 2moro there will be a lot of bleeding investors. 
Friday saw the week ending with the KSE-100 index closing down yet again, at 11,695. After Friday’s meeting of the SECP & the stock exchanges, it has been decided that the locks will revert to their normal 5% up or down as of July 14th. Short selling will be allowed in the August futures contract (see the article below) Given the pattern of trading in the last 2 weeks, expect a lot of lower caps 2moro. Stock up on Vaseline and Pampers !
After yesterday’s volume of 50 million, the market resumed its previous low volume, trading only 10.5 million shares. The market remained down the whole day and in the last 2-3 minutes jumped up by 60 odd points on heavy buying in HBL. The outlook for 2moro looks the same till there is some clarification on the lock revision after the 15th. Oil rose by $5 today.
The KSE-100 index actually went into the green zone a couple of times today, the first time in many days. The rapid (but long overdue ) support measures by the SBP on halting the rupee’s slide and yesterday’s news of a Rs. 50 billion market fund being talked about , seemd to be positive catalysts to a certain extent. Volume rose to nearly 50 million shares traded today and several stocks lifted from their lower caps to close plus. Perhaps the market will make a positive close 2moro .
More of the same today as the Karachi Stock market closed down yet again , despite a marginal increase in volumes to 18.9 million shares traded. Oil got a good hammering today and was down by $5. The rupee got fucked further and closed at 72.80
The KSE -100 index slid further downwards today with relatively higher volumes of 13.4 million shares traded. Bank Alfalah’s volume of 4.476 million shares traded today was higher than the total volume of shares traded on Friday. The horizon looks bleaker as the rupee had an enormous slide today(2.5%) closing at 71.80 to the dollar, due to panic buying. Typical on a day where the dollar actually rose against most other currencies ! The rupee has depreciated by nearly 12% since April. Its seems that the SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) is not really supporting the rupee and removing several items from the 35% LC margin list has not helped either. All the crap about $3.5 billion dollars coming in by June 30th has done fuck all to stem the tide, as not all of it did.
More low volume trading saw the KSE-100 index post its 5th consecutive negative close today. Only 9 million shares were traded. The ruppee hit a new low today and nearly crossed Rs.70 to the dollar. Its seems likely that there will be another negative close 2moro being the end of the week and no positive news on the horizon for the moment.
Another day of piteous low volumes with the KSE-100 index trading only 11.9 million shares. The market has closed down for the fourth consecutive session and has lost 326 points since Thursday. The only solace here is that prior to the new measures with a 1% downside , the current four session loss would have been incurred in one. The erosion has been slowed down and bearing in mind that as the other world and regional markets are getting fucked badly at the moment, the oil price rearing its ugly head at $144 today and the dollar sliding daily, 1% down a day is not so bad ! If this carries on 12k will break by the end of the week. A Govt. that cannot calculate properly (CNG price issue), let alone decide on anything, doesn’t help matters either !
The Karachi Stock market displayed more of the same today with most stocks hitting their lower caps. There was some activity in OGDC which closed up marginally and PSO which closed at 428.79, up Rs.11.55. Volumes increased compared to yesterday with 40.8 million shares traded. Whether the rest of the market opens up from its lower limits 2moro remains to be seen, but there should be some recovery soon.
The KSE-100 index traded only 7.3 million shares today, the lowest volume of shares traded for many years. It closed down at 12,289. While oil keeps shooting up and regional markets are getting buggered as well, the horizon appears gloomy for the moment.
On Friday the KSE-100 index traded its lowest volume in some time with only 20.9 million shares traded. Weekend selling pressure took the market down to close at 12,353 and most stocks closed at their lower limits. Despite the support from the SECP’s new measures to stabilize the mkt. this week, the outlook still remains bleak at the moment. It looks like there could be another round of lower caps on Monday.
The KSE-100 index made a high of 12,609 and closed at 12,452. As expected yesterday, there were quite a few lower caps and the market cooled off today with some profit taking. There could be some weekend selling 2moro as well. Oil shot up over $140 based on a weak dollar and irresponsible remarks from OPEC’s president Chakib Khelil, who said that prices could rise to $150-170 during the summer (see the article below). The market’s next upward resistance is 12,550 and a close above that would head towards 12,900. Given its current 1% downside, it could get there soon. 
The Karachi Stock market continued its rise making a high of 12,499 and closed up at 12,430. The market has jumped up 1268 points in the last two sessions and there could be some lower caps creeping in, in a day or two. Volumes have increased with 192.7 million shares traded today. 
The new measures imposed by the SECP this morning saw the KSE-100 index soar to an all time daily gain of 960.50 points, the highest ever one day gain in the history of the Karachi Stock Exchange. The new rules will provide temporary relief from the " bleeding rectum syndrome " for most investors for the next month and help those who were stuck, to have a choice to exit the market comfortably or continue. There are already articles in print with people moaning that these are articficial measures etc. etc, but the decision was wisely taken at a time when the market could have snowballed downwards even further with margin calls and liquidity problems. While the political instabilty and indecisive governance continues, along with the threat of a further discount rate hike looming ahead, sleep peacefully with the thought that the downside is only 1% 2moro !
The KSE-100 index got reamed again today and fell another 493 points down to 11,192. The last time the market closed at these levels was March 19th 2007. Fortunately some measures have finally been taken to support the market as of 2moro. While it may be a liitle too late for some, these measures should stabilize the market in a few days and there should be a big pullback 2moro. For all you shorters (people who go short )out there, the joyride is over, at least for the moment ! See the article below. 
The Karachi Stock market finished the week on Friday closing at 11,655, its lowest close since April 6th 2007. The market got rammed downwards by nearly 10%, losing 1286 points in a week. In the future it could be referred to as the " June 2008 crisis " and it has certainly cut off most people’s balls this week (and hopefully will not jam them down their throats in the coming week with a further slide !). While a lack of support left one scratching their heads on Friday, if there is no pullback 2moro, we could see a further plunge to 11,100 -10,800 (hopefully not). One must bear in mind that the rest of the world’s markets are getting fucked as well, so there could be more foreign selling. Keep applying the Vaseline !
The KSE-100 index got gang-banged today, making a low of 11,704 and closing 390 points down at 11,870. This was predominantly due to a rumour circulating, regarding doubling the price of CVT. The market is on a very weak footing with all kinds of uncertainty, political and financial, therefore the slighest cough or fart unleashes panic . It seems 500 points down in a day is par for the course at the moment. More irresponsible is the lack of any clarification on the CVT issue which seems unlikely to be implemented as it would have been mentioned at the time of CGT being exempted. Whether there will be a pullback 2moro or further erosion is anyone’s guess ! Buy large jars of Vaseline and apply copiously !!
The Karachi Stock market got another bashing today and closed down at 12,261. There was heavy selling in banks and cements and across the board in general. The market could go down to 11,800 if support at 12k doesn’t hold.
The KSE-100 index got hopelessly fucked out of shape today with a steady downward slide leading to close at 12,444, nearly 500 points down. Apparently foreign selling, political uncertainty and the Pak-Afghan border situation were to blame, along with all banks getting shafted based on an article in the newspapers re : withdrawal of all govt. deposits. Whether there will be a pullback 2moro remains to be seen. Keep the Vaseline at close reach !
Friday saw the KSE-100 index close down at 12,941, mainly due to a wait & see approach to the results of the " Long March " over the weekend. The " Long March " was a total waste of time and a criminal waste of money at a time when we are being taxed to the hilt to cover the govt’s shortfall in its fiscal and current account deficts.
The KSE-100 index opened up and made a high of 13,167 . Unable to sustain the gains it dipped and finally closed at 13,025. Aside from the fertilizer sector’s increased DAP subsidy, and no adjustment on refinery/OMC margins, the budget had really fuck all impact on the market. 
