The KSE-100 index made a high of 11,173 , then dipped down to 10,979 and close up at 11,156. Total volume traded today was 111.9 million shares, still on the low side. Arif Habib Securities was the flavour of the day with 12.6 million shares traded. The market has closed above its first resistance of 11,100 and the next target is 11,400. The market is up by nearly 1000 points since Friday and after 4 days of green, there could be some weekend selling 2moro.

News : The authorities have decided at a meeting held on Thursday that Equity Market Opportunity Fund (EMOF) would be an Open-End Fund. The EMOF  launched from Friday (today) would be injected in stock markets under NIT management when market is under pressure…The initial size of fund was declared at Rs20 billion, but owing to its attractiveness of being an open-end fund, the size might inflate to any level. The general public would also be able to invest in this fund and the National Investment Trust (NIT) would be announcing its daily NAV value and dividends,…NIT would form a separate board to manage the fund. The board would be meeting at least after every six months or in case of emergency too. Initially, EOBI has confirmed to pool Rs3 billion; State Life Rs2 billion and Rs2 billion by National Bank, besides other financial institutions and banks would share rest of funds, sources said. This fund would be invested in KSE 100-share Index instead of KSE 30-share Index as was informed earlier. The fund would not be invested in more than 50 companies… The News

Malaysia’s Maybank is set to buy another 5 percent of Pakistan’s MCB Bank as early as next month, in a deal estimated at $218 million,…Malayan Banking Bhd, Malaysia’s leading lender, bought a 15 percent stake in MCB Bank, Pakistan’s top lender, for $680 million in May. That deal included a clause whereby Maybank was obliged to buy up to another 5 percent of MCB Bank shares within one year of the first transaction. The price for this stake was then agreed at Rs 490 per share, plus holding cost, with the total price not exceeding Rs 510 per share. “The deal is very much on, the talks have started, and if all goes well, it should materialise sometime in August,” said a source close to the transaction.
A spokesman at Maybank declined comment. A spokesman at MCB Bank said any stake purchase by Maybank would be in line with the previous agreement, but he did not give a time frame for the new purchase…. Daily Times

Adamjee Insurance is likely to announce profit after tax of Rs 2.7 billion (EPS Rs 26) for the first half of the current year compared to Rs 1.18 billion (EPS Rs 11.6) in the corresponding period of last year, a growth of 125 percent, says a research report…“Exceptional growth in 2Q2008 profitability would mainly be attributable to a one-time capital gain of Rs 2.7 billion on account of MCB sell-off deal,”…. Daily Times

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has recently raised the cement price by 15 percent due to its rising demand, mainly benefiting Pakistani cement industry, sources said on Thursday. Pakistan is the major cement exporter to the UAE, as it fulfils around 70 percent of the total demand of the product in the Emirates.After the rising cement prices in the face of huge demand in UAE, analysts see Pakistan as a primary beneficiary to flood the Arab markets with its product. It is likely to receive huge cement export orders shortly, they said…Source : Aaj News

Upper Caps : BOP / AICL / NBP / UBL / MCB / DGKC / NML / ATRL

Market Low : 10,979.07 High : 11,173.77

Market Close : 11,156.68 – 138.18 points up

Another positive day at the Karachi Stock Exchange with the market making a high of 11,141 and closing up at 11,018. The market seems to have met resistance at 11,100 and needs to close above it for its next move to 11,400-700. Oil has dropped further down to $125 and hopefully will continue to fall more ,to get back to a realistic price.

News :  Barclays Bank Plc., a prominent bank of the United Kingdom, has become a scheduled bank in Pakistan from July 23 by opening its four branches, said Shazi Ashraf, head of corporate affairs of the Bank.“The Bank has commenced its two-branches in Karachi, one in Lahore and one in Islamabad from Wednesday (July 23) …,” she said.  Ms Shazi said, “the bank is neither interested to acquire any Pakistani bank till now nor it is negotiating for any merger.” Barclays Bank Plc entered into Pakistan with an initial investment of $100 million aiming to open ten branches throughout the country. It has commenced four branches in Pakistan while other six branches would be started by the end of this year… the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has declared “Barclays Bank Plc.” as a scheduled Bank with effect from July 23, 2008….Daily Times

Market : 10,784.81 High : 11,141.84

Market : 11,018.50 – 233.69 points up

The Karachi Stock market opened up and stayed positive all day, closing at 10,784. The market rose in anticipation of the Finance Minister’s visit this afternoon . He announced that the EMOF would be Rs.20 billion and would be managed by NIT. Also mentioned that the Govt. would work with the SBP to have a balanced monetary policy and promised that its net borrowing from the SBP would be kept at zero. Along with the expected  Saudi oil payment facility, there seems to be enough positive news to stabilize the market at current levels. The next upward resistance is 11,100.

News : The government has capped the profit/margin of oil marketing companies (OMCs) and dealers on oil sale at July 1, 2008 level, and constituted a committee to work out some methodology to give relief to the consumers. Acting Secretary, Petroleum, G A Sabri, announced government decision of capping OMCs’ and dealers’ profit/margin here at a press conference.He said that OMCs and dealers’ profit/margin capping would give a benefit of Rs 7.5 billion to the consumers, per annum, in oil prices….the government had also reached an agreement with refineries, which provides that the latter, as key player of the oil sector, would go for expansion in their production capacity to help the country meet its growing energy demand. He said the committee would decide the issue of deemed duty–a protection given to the refineries under exiting oil pricing formula…. Aaj News

Saudi Arabia is in talks to allow Pakistan to defer payments for crude oil sales during the current fiscal year, Pakistan’s de facto finance minister Naveed Qamar said on Tuesday."We are in talks with Saudi Arabia about the oil facility and there will be an announcement soon from Saudi Arabia," Qamar told an audience at the Karachi Stock Exchange, where he was visiting to reassure investors after a precipitous fall in share prices… Aaj News

Finance Minister Naveed Qamar announced here on Tuesday that Rs 20 billion ‘Equity Market Opportunity Fund’ (EMOF) would be launched within the current week. Addressing members of Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE), the minister said that the Rs 20 billion EMOF would be chanelled through National Investment Trust (NIT)…He said that the government has reduced borrowing from State Bank. The government would either not borrow, or borrow negligibly from the central bank, he said, adding that the government would use other sources to generate funds. He announced that the government would re-launch the privatization programme, after approval by the Cabinet, to generate more funds. The minister said that oil price hike was an international issue. He noted that the government was facing a challenging situation due to unprecedented rise in oil prices. He observed that the monetary policy should not be further tightened despite inflationary pressure. "We want to maintain a balance between monetary and fiscal policies in co-ordination with SBP, and boost exports", he said… Aaj News

Market Low : 10,374.30 High : 10,795.71

Market Close : 10,784.81 – 410.51 points up

After another dip down to 10,057, the KSE-100 index finally closed up with a reasonable gain of 140 points at 10,374. The Government has finally woken up to realize that the market has gone down nearly 35% in the last 3 months. This has resulted in a visit from the SBP governor at the KSE today and the Finance Minister will be visiting 2moro. A little too late one could say, but better late than never. A close above 10,500 would be supportive for the market.

Dividends : Engro Polymer : EPS : 0.83

News : State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Dr Shamshad Akhtar has said that despite multiple shocks, the country’s economy has managed to record economic growth of 5.8 percent in FY08, which is above the average growth trend of 5 percent observed between FY1991 and FY2008. During her first visit to Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) here on Monday, she clarified that the central bank’s Prudential Regulatory Framework is largely supportive of exposures to the stock market, and that within the existing regulations, banks have the aggregate capacity of an incremental amount of Rs 40 billion to invest in the stock market, if they wish to do so. The SBP has also extended the deadline for banks’ total stock market exposure not to exceed 50 percent of their equity to June 30, 2009.
The SBP Governor was invited by the KSE Management to address a meeting of the KSE Board of Directors, stockbrokers and heads of commercial and investment banks… Aaj News

Upper Caps : AHSL / BAFL / DGKC / OGDC/ POL/ PSO / PPL /UBL / NBP amongst others

Lower Caps : MCB / BOP /

Market Low : 10,057.72  High : 10,374.30

Market Close : 10,374.30 – 139.52 points up

While the economy of the country is in dire straits, the government is still harping on about their differences in resolving the judiciary problem. Is this current slide, the reflection of our Govt. being seen as a totally inadequate, fucking joke ?

Dividends : FFBL : 6% Cash : EPS : 0.77

Market Low : 10,045.43 High : 10,491.88

Market Close : 10,212.92 — 278.96 points down

As expected the Karachi Stock market got badly fucked, as the lower limit was opened to 5% today and the market fell by 518 points. Volumes were on the low side with 49.3 million shares traded, not much different from July 9th when the lower cap was 1% and 50 million shares were traded. Certain blue chips have hit their 2 year lows yet there doesn’t seem to be much buying interest. If there is no support/buying at 5% down 2moro there will be a lot of bleeding investors.

Market Low : 11,161.07 High : 11,695.82

Market Close : 11,177.31 — 518.51 points down

Friday saw the week ending with the KSE-100 index closing down yet again, at 11,695. After Friday’s meeting of the SECP & the stock exchanges, it has been decided that the locks will revert to their normal 5% up or down as of July 14th. Short selling will be allowed in the August futures contract (see the article below) Given the pattern of trading in the last 2 weeks, expect a lot of lower caps 2moro. Stock up on Vaseline and Pampers !

News : Saudi Arabia has agreed, in principle, to defer payments for crude oil sales to Pakistan, expected to be worth about $5.9 billion during Pakistan’s 2008-09 financial year, The Financial Times reported on Saturday….Aaj News

The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) has reverted the upper and lower security-wise circuit breaker to 5 percent or Re 1, announcing strict monitoring of market activities, especially with reference to blank sales in excess of allowed limit and other market manipulations…. Aaj News

Market Low : 11,687.11 High : 11,773.12

Market Close : 11,695.82 – 77.30 points down

Next meeting on the fund formation is scheduled to be held on July 16. The tentative regulations were made public following SECP and KSE meeting held here on Thursday with financial institutions, which are the only eligible investors to pool their funds in EMOF.National Investment Trust Limited (NITL) will be given the responsibility to run this fund, while financial institutions ie banks and Development Financial Institutions (DFIs), state-owned institutions and semi-government companies would be its only eligible members.

If an agreement is inked between the SECP and the likely members of this fund, then this fund would be invested in the KSE 30-index stocks that are eligible for CFS and CFS MK-II. Fund allocation will be according to the weight of each eligible scrip as a percentage of total CFS value as of July 08, 2008. Listed securities of brokerage houses and their holding companies will not be eligible securities for investment.

The EMOF shall be utilised as 30 per cent of funds will be made available on Day one; 30 per cent on day two; 30 per cent on day three and 10 per cent of funds will be made available on Day four. Any unutilized funds shall continue to be made available till the fifth trading day.After phase one, if funds are still available, the EMOF will review its investment strategy and may reenter the market.On the other hand, EMOF shall divest its holdings when the share prices of any particular scrip exceed 20 per cent of their weighted average of last six months… The News
 

After yesterday’s volume of 50 million, the market resumed its previous low volume, trading only 10.5 million shares. The market remained down the whole day and in the last 2-3 minutes jumped up by 60 odd points on heavy buying in HBL. The outlook for 2moro looks the same till there is some clarification on the lock revision after the 15th. Oil rose by $5 today.

News : Credit Suisse launched its operations in Pakistan on Thursday through a wholly owned subsidiary, Credit Suisse Pakistan (Private) Limited based in Karachi. It will initially offer equity research and research sales to institutional clients, and aims to expand its operations to full broking-dealing services…Credit Suisse has already put in place a research team for Pakistan, with active coverage of the country’s equity market. It started research coverage of Pakistan in 2006 and covers 50 Pakistan stocks. A paper released to the media on the occasion says that Credit Suisse is investing in Pakistan because it believes it has an exciting economic story that offers attractive opportunities to investors… Daily Times

The government is likely to reduce the deemed duty from 10 percent to 5 percent for oil refineries in an attempt to stabilise the oil prices in the country and a summary has been prepared in this regard that would be presented before the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet for the formal approval… Daily Times

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) has registered significant growth in the sales of diesel and petrol by 20 and 30 percent, respectively during the financial year 2007-08.According to official figures released Thursday, the state-run oil marketing company has carried out 5.3 million metric tonnes sales of diesel in the closing fiscal year 2007-08, against 4.4 million metric tonnes in 2006-07. Source : Daily Times

Market Low : 11,702.52 High : 11,796.47

Market Close : 11,773.12 – 23.35 points down

The KSE-100 index actually went into the green zone a couple of times today, the first time in many days. The rapid (but long overdue ) support measures by the SBP on halting the rupee’s slide and yesterday’s news of a Rs. 50 billion market fund being talked about , seemd to be positive catalysts to a certain extent. Volume rose to nearly 50 million shares traded today and several stocks lifted from their lower caps to close plus. Perhaps the market will make a positive close 2moro .

News :  Pakistan State Oil (PSO) has paid all its outstanding dues worth Rs 57 billion to different local refineries and banks on purchase of petroleum products particularly diesel and petrol….. the government had granted Rs 62 billion as Price Differential Claims (PDC) to the state-run oil marketing company a week ago. It has also paid outstanding loans of more than Rs 30 billion to the banks… its market share has increased to 71 percent in the current month as compare to 59 percent during May… Daily Times

Market Low : 11,733.42 High : 11,846.94

Market Close : 11,796.47 – 16.77 points down

More of the same today as the Karachi Stock market closed down yet again , despite a marginal increase in volumes to 18.9 million shares traded. Oil got a good hammering today and was down by $5. The rupee got fucked further and closed at 72.80

News : The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) and Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) board meeting held here on Tuesday ended with a note to form a market support fund worth Rs 50 billion with the help of the institutions. Sources said that SECP will arrange and co-ordinate with the institutions and board of KSE will give a presentation. "If everything goes right then the fund will inject liquidity after the July 15th, 2008 meeting of locks revision", they added. Meanwhile the SECP has decided to convene a meeting of three stock exchanges on Friday, July 11th… Aaj News

Market Low : 11,797.17 High : 11,878.38

Market Close ; 11,813.38 – 65.14 points down

The KSE -100 index slid further downwards today with relatively higher volumes of 13.4 million shares traded. Bank Alfalah’s volume of 4.476 million shares traded today was higher than the total volume of shares traded on Friday. The horizon looks bleaker as the rupee had an enormous slide today(2.5%) closing at 71.80 to the dollar, due to panic buying. Typical on a day where the dollar actually rose against most other currencies ! The rupee has depreciated by nearly 12% since April. Its seems that the SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) is not really supporting the rupee and removing several items from the 35% LC margin list has not helped either. All the crap about $3.5 billion dollars coming in by June 30th has done fuck all to stem the tide, as not all of it did.

The Govt. really needs to wake up and focus on our dwindling economy ( if they are capable of it ) and stop dancing around the utterly irrelevent issue of restoring the judiciary which they claim is the answer to all our woes. Admittedly the rapid, continous rising price of oil hasn’t helped. We are slowly sliding down the pan, heads just above the turds, waiting for the  chain to be pulled.

News : In the first 100 days of the coalition government, Pakistan’s economy nose-dived with a massive fall in foreign reserves by $2.1 billion (15.8 per cent), and huge downgrading of the rupee by Rs8.3 against the US dollar….In spite of many attempts The News failed to make contact with Finance Minister Naveed Qamar and Secretary Finance Furrukh Qayyum to know their side of the story, as both the top men of the ministry did not respond to the calls of this correspondent. However, the fast deteriorating economic indicators show that the economy is not on the radar screen of the government. This is quite evident from the fact that there is no resolve in corridors of power to provide stable, cohesive political environment to handle the current economic challenges the country is facing… The News

Market Low : 11,878.38 High : 11,961.66

Market Close : 11,878.38 – 83.28 points down

Engro Chemical (ENGRO) : 24th

Habib Bank Ltd (HBL) : 25th

Pakistan Premier Fund (PPFL) : 4pm

Arif Habib Ltd : (AHL) : 29th : 3.30 pm

Fauji Fertilizer Co. Ltd. : (FFC ) : 30th  10.p.m.

Arif Habib Securities Ltd : (AHSL) : 4.pm

Market Low : 11,952.52 High : 12,035.21

Market Close : 11,961.66 – 73.55 points down

More low volume trading saw the KSE-100 index post its 5th consecutive negative close today. Only 9 million shares were traded. The ruppee hit a new low today and nearly crossed Rs.70 to the dollar. Its seems likely that there will be another negative close 2moro being the end of the week and no positive news on the horizon for the moment.

News :  The urea price on Thursday shot up by Rs 70 per 50 kg bag in the domestic market in the wake of recent gas tariffs rise by 31 percent… Sources said, "the leading urea companies including Fauji Fertiliser and Engro Pakistan have raised the urea commodity prices by Rs 35 to Rs 625 per 50 kg bag which earlier stood at Rs 590 per 50 kg bag…At present, local urea production stands at some four million tonnes annually against the demand of 4.5-5 million tonnes in the country. Fauji Fertiliser operates four plants capturing 60 percent of the market share with production of about three million tonnes annually. Engro is in the second position, producing some one million tonne urea annually. The remaining gap between supply and demand is filled up with imported urea. The government provides some Rs 1,000-1,200 per 50-kg bag subsidy on imported urea to ensure availability of the commodity at a reasonable price to growers. Urea is being imported at Rs 1,600-1,700 per 50-kg bag, while importers are selling it at Rs 625 per 50-kg bag… Aaj News

The dialogue between the government, Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and oil refineries regarding the new oil pricing formula remained inconclusive Thursday and government has called another meeting on July 14th for further consultation… OMCs representatives said that cost of doing business in the country was increasing and freezing of margin would further aggravate the situation…. They said that the delayed payment of price differential claims by government had caused distortion in their margins. Sources said that OMCs also proposed the government to review the oil pricing formula after every six months to adjust the margins and taxes on petroleum products in the current scenario of oil price hike in international market…Sources said that oil refineries are ready to withdraw the 10 percent deemed duty on high speed diesel but they have at the same time demanded an incentive of Rs 12 billion either by increase in profit margin or relaxation in taxes. Oil refineries warned that if the deemed duty is withdrawn and they were not offered any other alternative incentive, their business in Pakistan would be shut down…. Daily Times

Market Low : 12,035.21  High : 12,126.10

Market Close :  12,035.21 – 90.89 points down

Another day of piteous low volumes with the KSE-100 index trading only 11.9 million shares. The market has closed down for the fourth consecutive session and has lost 326 points since Thursday.  The only solace here is that prior to the new measures with a 1% downside , the current four session loss would have been incurred in one. The erosion has been slowed down and  bearing  in mind that as the other world and regional markets are getting fucked badly at the moment,  the oil price rearing its ugly head at $144 today and the dollar sliding daily, 1% down a day is not so bad ! If this carries on 12k will break by the end of the week. A Govt. that cannot calculate properly (CNG price issue), let alone decide on anything, doesn’t help matters either !

News : The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) has taken major steps to promote the implementation of international  practices in Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) valuation. Launching the REIT product in February 2008, the lack of transparency is a major bottleneck in the real estate sector in Pakistan. The SECP has built a strong REIT implementation team, which is multi-disciplinary and includes a civil engineer and a real estate broker. To study REIT licensing and evaluation, SECP selected Malaysia as a relevant jurisdiction. Five officers of the Commission were sent on a study tour to Malaysia to understand the problems and issues faced by the Securities Commission Malaysia in the monitoring and regulation of Malaysian REITs…. Daily Times

Market Low : 12,123.69 High : 12,221.53

Market Close : 12,126.10 — 95.43 points down

The Karachi Stock market displayed more of  the same today with most stocks hitting their lower caps. There was  some activity in OGDC which closed up marginally and PSO which closed at 428.79, up Rs.11.55. Volumes increased compared to yesterday with 40.8 million shares traded. Whether the rest of the market opens up from its lower limits 2moro remains to be seen, but there should be some recovery soon.

Dividends : National Investment Trust (NIT) Limited has declared highest-ever dividend of Rs 6.50 per unit for its unit holders (both for LOC and non-LOC Funds) for the year ended on June 30, 2008. “The payment of record dividend would involve a huge total payout of Rs 10,490 million among its unit holders as against Rs 10,034 million paid to unit holders last year,” chairman and managing director NIT, Muhammad Nawaz Tinsha said Tuesday. NIT has out performed the benchmark KSE-100 Index by a good margin of 4.4 percent… Daily Times

Local cement manufacturers on Tuesday raised the price of cement by Rs 15 per 50-kg bag due to increase in the sales tax and excise duty. The federal government has raised General Sales Tax (GST) by one percent and Federal Excise Duty (FED) by Rs 150 per tonne on cement in the new budget….Industry sources claimed that with an increase in the GST and FED, the tax impact on cement has risen to Rs 85 per bag from July 1, 2008, while earlier it stood at Rs 73 per bag. However, it is interesting to note that cement manufacturers had already increased cement prices by Rs 40-50 per 50-kg bag after the announcement of the budget… Aaj News

Market Low : 12,189.24 High : 12,289.03

Market Close : 12,221.53 – 67.50 points down

The KSE-100 index traded only 7.3 million shares today, the lowest volume of shares traded for many years. It closed down at 12,289. While oil keeps shooting up and regional markets are getting buggered as well, the horizon appears gloomy for the moment.

News :  The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), in the best interest of the capital market, has allowed associated companies of the fund managers to invest in mutual funds. This decision will bring mutual funds at par with the commercial banks…. Source : Aaj News

The government has increased gas prices by 31 percent and that of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) by Rs 13 per kg. The new rates will be effective from July 1. The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority notified the new rates on Monday… Source : Aaj News

Market Low : 12,256.37 High : 12,353.19

Market Close : 12,289.03 – 64.16 points down

On Friday the KSE-100 index traded its lowest volume in some time with only 20.9 million shares traded. Weekend selling pressure took the market down to close at 12,353 and most stocks closed at their lower limits. Despite the support from the SECP’s new measures to stabilize the mkt. this week, the outlook still remains bleak at the moment. It looks like there could be another round of lower caps on Monday.

Market Low : 12,342.78 High : 12,452.08 

Market Close : 12,353.19 –  98.90 points down

The KSE-100 index made a high of 12,609 and closed at 12,452. As expected yesterday, there were quite a few lower caps and the market cooled off today with some profit taking. There  could be some weekend selling 2moro as well. Oil shot up over $140 based on a weak dollar and irresponsible remarks from OPEC’s president Chakib Khelil, who said that prices could rise to $150-170 during the summer (see the article below). The market’s next upward resistance is 12,550 and a close above that would head towards 12,900. Given its current 1% downside, it could get there soon.

News :  The government has asked the Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) to submit proposals for setting up new mechanism for profit margin in the proposed oil pricing formula… While on the other hand, the OMCs have opposed the possible move by government to freeze their margin…The government believes that the profit margins of OMCs were fixed when the oil prices were low and the gains of these companies were also less, however the rising oil prices in the international market have caused increase in the margin of OMCs.
Government wants to maintain of OMCs margin at 3.5 percent but intends to change the basis of its determination that will freeze the margin of OMCs. But OMCs are not in favour of it and therefore the meeting remained inclusive… Daily Times

The president of OPEC, Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil, forecast on Thursday that oil prices could rise to $150-170 a barrel during the northern hemisphere summer.If there were real demand for extra oil, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would do what was needed to satisfy it, he said, affirming that there was enough oil in the world for about the next 50 years. “I predict probably prices of $150 to 170 this summer. It (the market) will probably fall a bit towards the end of the year,” … Daily Times